XRP is off to a rough start this November. The cryptocurrency has slipped nearly 3% in the past 24 hours and has lost more than 19% over the last month. This sustained weakness points to a deeper trend where sellers remain firmly in control — unless buyers can reclaim a key resistance zone soon.
The ongoing downtrend has been confirmed by both technical indicators and on-chain data, revealing that short-term holders are playing a critical role in the recent selloff. With many investors sitting on unrealized profits, XRP may continue to face downward pressure unless it manages to break a crucial resistance level at $2.64.
Hidden Bearish Divergence Confirms Weak Momentum
Between October 13 and November 2, XRP’s chart revealed a classic technical warning: a hidden bearish divergence. While the Relative Strength Index (RSI) made a higher high — often interpreted as building bullish strength — the price of XRP made a lower high during the same period.
This divergence typically signals that a temporary upward move in momentum may not translate into sustained price growth. In simpler terms, buyers appear active, but sellers are still driving the market.
Analysts suggest that XRP needs a daily close above $2.64 to invalidate this bearish setup. If the token can reclaim that level, it would open a pathway to a short-term rebound and potentially shift market sentiment back toward optimism.
Until then, the overall structure remains bearish. Momentum indicators continue to point to declining strength, with RSI readings trending downward and MACD showing weak momentum on the daily timeframe.
On-Chain Data Confirms Profit-Taking Trend
Beyond technical charts, on-chain metrics further confirm the selling pressure. The Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL), a measure of how profitable the average holder is, currently stands at around 0.428.
This is almost identical to the peak reached on October 20, when XRP fell from $2.50 to $2.36 in a sharp two-day correction. Historically, high NUPL readings indicate that a large share of investors are sitting on profits — often prompting them to sell and realize gains before a market correction deepens.
The same pattern is playing out again. Many short-term traders are locking in profits, adding downward pressure on price action.
Short-Term Holders Accelerate Selling
Glassnode data reveals that wallets holding XRP for one day to one week have reduced their total share from 2.28% to 1.17% in just two weeks — a nearly 50% drop.
This steep decline suggests that short-term participants are selling aggressively into minor rallies, limiting any chance for XRP to build bullish momentum. It’s a textbook sign of profit-taking behavior often seen near local market tops.
Such behavior tends to create a self-reinforcing cycle. As more short-term holders sell, the price dips further, discouraging new buyers and weakening overall market sentiment.
Key Support Levels in Focus
At the time of writing, XRP is trading close to $2.33. The next critical support sits at $2.31 — a level that has acted as a key pivot in previous trading sessions.
If this level fails to hold, XRP could extend its losses toward $2.18, marking another leg down in the ongoing correction. This potential decline aligns closely with the previous NUPL-driven sell zones, indicating that traders are once again using profits to exit positions before prices fall further.
However, if buyers manage to defend the $2.31 support, XRP could consolidate and attempt another test of the $2.64 resistance. Successfully reclaiming this resistance would invalidate the hidden bearish divergence, signaling renewed buyer confidence and possibly setting the stage for a trend reversal.
Market Context: Broader Crypto Weakness
It’s not just XRP feeling the pressure. The broader crypto market has experienced notable weakness over the past few weeks, with both Bitcoin and Ethereum seeing double-digit declines in October.
This cooling sentiment has led to increased stablecoin inflows, suggesting that investors are choosing to sit on the sidelines rather than risk capital in volatile markets. Such macro trends often spill over into altcoins like XRP, amplifying local price corrections.
What Could Turn the Tide for XRP?
For XRP to regain strength, it must first reclaim the $2.64 resistance level and establish a solid daily close above it. This would confirm a short-term trend reversal and attract renewed interest from traders watching for bullish confirmation.
A recovery in market-wide liquidity could also play a major role. If Bitcoin and Ethereum begin to stabilize, capital could start rotating back into altcoins like XRP — especially given the token’s strong fundamentals and ongoing institutional developments around Ripple’s ecosystem.
Conclusion
XRP’s recent slide isn’t simply a case of weak momentum — it’s a combination of short-term holders taking profits and technical patterns reinforcing bearish sentiment.
The $2.31 support remains the key level to watch in the coming days. If it holds, XRP may get a chance to recover and test the $2.64 resistance, which would be crucial in reversing its downtrend.
However, if selling from short-term holders continues and $2.31 breaks, further downside could follow. Until the market confirms a higher close, caution remains the best strategy for traders navigating XRP’s current price cycle.
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